- Capacity additions this year will be led by India and Nigeria, with the first seeing rising demand while the latter is benefiting from high oil prices
- Cement production capacity in China to decrease by 2026
- Western Europe and North America's capacities to remain flat this year
Greenwich (CT), USA, June 7, 2022 – Cement plant expansions are expected to be moderate in 2022, as demand in some regions will likely continue to be impacted by resurgence of Covid-19 and by increasing production costs caused by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to CW Research’s 1H2022 update of the Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR).
Capacity additions this year will be led by India and Nigeria', with the first seeing rising demand while the latter is benefiting from high oil prices. North America and Western Europe are not expected to witness any significant capacity additions.
"In the markets where capacity additions are expected in 2022, some projects are likely to be postponed at least until late 2023 due to a series of challenges, including freight prices and high production costs, which have been highly impacted by energy, as well as supply-chain disruptions," observes Carolina Pereira, Director at CW Group.
Indian capacity additions revised upwards
Out of the set of countries that CW Research tracks, India has the largest positive capacity revision in this release of the GCVFR. Compared to the 2H2021 release, CW Research forecast that India will add an estimated 17 million tons to its existing cement capacity by 2026.
The forecast for the United Arab Emirates was also revised upwards by more than 5 million tons, while cement capacity in South Africa was also revised up by over 5 million tons from the previous report. When looking at downward revisions, Vietnam, Brazil, and Ukraine have been revised negatively.
Cement production capacity in China to decrease by 2026
Chinese cement production capacity declined during 2021 by over 3 million tons and is projected to further decline in 2022, due to scriter environmental regulations. The Chinese production capacity by 2026 is expected to reduce by almost 30 million tons compared to 2021.
Unlike in China, new capacity will be added in regions including Asia ex-China, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, Algeria, India, Nigeria, Vietnam, and Pakistan.
Western Europe and North America's capacities to remain flat this year
In Western Europe, the region is not expected to see any significant capacity additions due to the mature nature of the market in this region. Only France and the United Kingdom are likely to add some capacity from 2021 to 2026.
In North America, U.S. capacities are expected to remain flat during the year, while in the 2021-2026 period, Canada is expected to see an increase in its capacity of about 1 percent annually.
The CW Group’s Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) is a twice-yearly update on projections for cement volumes on a national, regional and global level. The forecast provides global and regional outlooks, as well as detailed perspectives on 57 of the world’s most important countries’ cement consumption, production, net trade and cement production capacity. The five-year outlook presented in this benchmark study enables industry professionals to shape their perspective on markets and business priorities.
Find out more about the report here.