Global cement consumption can contract to 4.01 billion tons in 2050, according to CW Research’s long-term forecast available in the 1H2019 update of the Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR).
Under this scenario, cement consumption would decline sharply in China, but show moderate gains in both advanced and emerging economies. Functionally, factors such as environmental restrictions, substitutes and evolving construction methods would also pressure growth.
“The largest growth in cement consumption is expected for the emerging markets and developing economies as their economic indicators gallop to catch up with the levels of the advanced economies. Additionally, continuous population growth in these markets would also constitute an important demand generator”, observes Prashant Singh, CW Group’s Associate Director.
Stricter green policies to drive use of alternative building materials
Brisk population growth in some regions, coupled with rapidly growing urbanization rates in under-developed and emerging economies, is likely to exert a positive impact on cement demand through 2050. Given that population growth in emerging and under-developed markets is rising at a clipper rate, per-capita cement demand is projected to grow slower than total cement demand in these markets.
In mature economies, total and per-capita cement consumption will possibly experience a modest decrease until 2050. With ever-tightening environment norms, and focus on more environmentally-friendly and sustainable construction processes, CW Research projects developed markets to register an increase in the usage of alternative building materials including low-clinker cement, alternative fuels, and precast concrete. These are expected to complement, not replace, the consumption of cement due to its ubiquitous nature.
Chinese cement consumption to plummet
The Chinese cement market, the catalyst for global cement demand, is currently at a demand peak of 2.3 billion tons, but is prone to a significant contraction in cement consumption as the government continues to enforce strict rationalization efforts of cement capacity. Cement demand growth over the period until 2050 is expected to follow a more moderate pace as the growth focus changes from government spending to a consumption-driven economy.
In North America, Western Europe, and developed Asia-Pacific countries, a slight increase in cement consumption is projected for the 2018-2050 period, driven by recurrent construction and maintenance needs.
In markets in North Africa, Middle East, South America and Emerging Asia, GDP is forecast to record a more-than-double increase to 2050, which, coupled with population increase, is likely to translate into an expansion in cement demand.
CW Group’s Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) is a twice-yearly update on projections for cement volumes on a national, regional and global level. The forecast provides global and regional outlooks, as well as detailed perspectives on 57 of the world’s most important countries’ cement consumption, production, net trade and cement production capacity. The five-year outlook presented in this benchmark study enables industry professionals to shape their perspective on markets and business priorities.
Find out more about the report here