- Asia ex-China is expected to see the largest growth in consumption in the next five years
- Investment in Infrastructure boosts consumption in the Middle East
- China is projected to see an overall downward trend over the forecast period
Greenwich (CT), USA, December 20, 2022 – Despite a global economic slowdown in 2022, Asia ex-China and Africa are expected to see a positive performance and drive cement consumption growth over the next five years, according to CW Research's 2H2022 update of the Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR).
Cement consumption is estimated to witness a 5 percent growth year-on-year in Asia ex-China this year, after an increase of almost 10 percent in 2021. In Africa, cement consumption is expected to see a growth of almost 3 percent after a robust increase of around 4 percent last year. Global consumption, including China, on the other hand, is projected to see a decline of over 3 percent this year
"The expectations of a rebound in cement consumption in 2022 were rudely cast aside with the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The rigid implementation of the zero-Covid policy negatively impacted cement consumption in China in addition to the financial challenges of this property sector. Asia-ex China and Africa are expected to remain the largest drivers of global consumption until 2027", states Wanderson Teixeira, Business Analyst at CW Group.
China to see the largest regional consumption decline
China's cement consumption is expected to decline by over 8 percent this year, compared to a much smaller drop of less than 1 percent in 2021. The resurgence of Covid-19 cases, which has resulted in new lockdowns, combined with high building material prices and a tight property market have harmed Chinese cement prospects for the year. In the forecast period of 2022-2027, Chinese consumption is expected to continue with a downward trajectory
In Asia ex-China, cement consumption is likely to see an increase in 2022 estimated at over 5 percent driven by increases in the Philippines, India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia
Central & Eastern Europe with two consecutive years of decline in consumption
After increasing by more than 2 percent in 2021, Central and Eastern Europe is projected to witness two consecutive years of decline in cement consumption, estimated at 3 percent in 2022 and 1 percent in 2023, respectively. In Russia, demand is likely to dip by around 6 percent with the construction industry struggling as a result of sanctions imposed by Western nations in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Furthermore, due to the regional economic downturn caused by the conflict, Western Europe's cement consumption growth is predicted to reach about 2 percent year-on-year in 2022
Infrastructure investment boosts cement consumption growth in the Middle East
In the Middle East, cement consumption is expected to increase in 2022 by almost 3 percent, after growing by less than 1 percent in 2021. With oil revenues rebounding, regional markets are likely to continue investing in infrastructure.
Iran and Saudi Arabia, the region's two heavyweight cement consumers, are both expected to report an increase in consumption, with Iran expected to grow by around 2 percent and Saudi Arabia projected to grow by nearly 6 percent year-on-year.
The CW Group’s Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) is a twice-yearly update on projections for cement volumes on a national, regional and global level. The forecast provides global and regional outlooks, as well as detailed perspectives on 57 of the world’s most important countries’ cement consumption, production, net trade and cement production capacity. The five-year outlook presented in this benchmark study enables industry professionals to shape their perspectives on markets and business priorities.
Find out more about the report here.