The total volume of sea-based traded cementitious materials is forecast to increase between 2021 and 2026, to reach 192 million tons, according to CW Research's 2021 update of the World Cement, Clinker & Slag Sea-Based Trade Report.
CW Research expects the global seaborne cementitious trade to rebound from Covid-19 in 2021. Over the next five years stronger growth is expected for fly ash, slag and gray cement, and more modest growth for white cement and clinker.
“Cementitious trade volumes are forecast to grow over 2021-2026 as the global economy is expected to bounce back from the impact caused by the pandemic. By 2026, clinker is expected to continue to account for the largest share of seaborne trade. Combined gray cement and clinker trade is likely to account for almost 85 percent of the global cementitious trade volumes,” states Carolina Pereira, Manager, Advisory & Research at CW Group.
Clinker trade to rise on stricter environmental regulations
Clinker trade by sea is expected to see a sustained growth in the coming five years, due to increased demand from China but also stricter CO2 emission regulations. Demand from markets with strong environmental regulations are expected to be supplied via imports, with clinker expected to be the cementitious material of choice.
Meanwhile, raw material scarcity will remain an important source of demand for exporters. Apart from traditional markets with limestone shortage, including Ivory Coast, Ghana, Bangladesh, shortage of good quality limestone will lead to clinker imports in larger markets, including India over the long term.
China’s demand to boost gray cement trade volumes recovery
Over the next five years, gray cement seaborne trade is predicted to see a recovery at a CAGR of 3 percent.
China’s production rationalization, combined with more strict environmental regulations, are set to affect China’s cement supply and, therefore, to push for an increase for imports, mostly from Asia Pacific.
Slag trade to grow robustly in 2021
Slag sea-based trade is expected to grow in 2021, as slag output is dependent on steel production, through blast furnace technology.
By the end of 2026, sea based traded volumes of slag are likely to rise on the back of global environmental concerns. The Asia ex-China region, including, India and South Korea are expected to help drive production.
CW Group's World Cement, Clinker & Slag Sea-based Trade Report provides an in-depth and data-oriented analysis of trade-related development, historical trade flows and prices, and changes in exports and imports during the past years from a regional perspective, with a focus on key markets. The report also projects key cement and clinker supply-demand gaps that will sustain world cement trading for the next few years. Key exporters, their facilities, and traders are profiled, as well as key ocean-going cement carrier operations and their vessels. Examined trade flows include gray cement, clinker, white cement, and slag, as well as a discussion of fly ash trade, in bag, big-bag, or bulk form. The report projects main flows through 2024 expected to be shipped by ocean going vessels and includes prevailing cement trade prices and bulk/dry cargo shipping rates.
Find out more about the report here.