Despite an expected decline in China’s crude steel production, sustained growth in other Asian countries is expected to drive global crude production to an estimated 1.9 billion tons by 2025F, according to CW Research’s 2020 update of the 2020 update of the Global Ground Granulated Blast-furnace Slag Market Report and Forecast.
China total crude production in 2025F is expected to reach 2018 levels, as it reverts back from an unexpected rise in 2020 and 2021 to its long-term trajectory of declining steel intensity. Outside China, crude production is expected to remain dominated by the current leading producers India, Japan and South Korea by 2025F.
“China has already reached a peak in crude steel production and consumption. The medium to long-term trend is a sustained decline in production and consumption intensity. Asia ex-China’s crude steel output is expected to drive global crude production, supported by India, which is likely to grow at a CAGR of more than 6 percent over the forecast period,” assesses Carolina Pereira, Manager, Advisory & Research at CW Group.
Crude steel production in Europe to return to 2018 levels by 2025F
Crude steel production in Europe is expected to witness a growth from 2020E and 2025F, returning to 2018 levels. Germany, which accounts for more than a quarter of Europe’s crude steel production, is estimated to have seen a significant decline in production in 2020 as the region grappled with an economic contraction of historic proportions due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Germany’s crude steel production in 2025F is likely to be in the range of 2019 volumes as demand reaches a plateau.
Of the new steel production capacities that are expected to come online by 2022F in Europe, around 10 percent is expected be added in Turkey.
North America to add almost 10 million tons of crude steel capacity by 2025F
North America is expected to see an increase of more than 9 million tons of crude steel capacity between 2020E and 2025F, in contrast to the estimated 4 million tons of capacity that was shuttered in 2019. The region is likely to witness a strong recovery from 2020, with some blast furnace (BF) capacity to be shut down and replaced with more energy efficient electric arc furnaces (EAFs).
In South America, crude steel production is expected to see a minor increase by 2025F as regional production recovers from the dip in 2020, which resulted in shutdowns of numerous BFs in Brazil.
More than 95 percent of all capacity additions in the Middle East are set to occur in Iran
More than 95 percent of all capacity additions in the Middle East are set to occur in Iran, the only major producer of crude steel in Middle East.
In Africa, crude steel capacity additions are expected to reach almost 3 million tons by 2025F, which is already underway in the region’s major producer South Africa.
The 2020 update of the Global Ground Granulated Blast-furnace Slag Market Report and Forecast provides an in-depth analysis of the global blast furnace slag market. The report presents the latest data on the market size (volume and value) sourced through both primary and secondary research. Historic and five-year forecast data showcased include figures on consumption, domestic production, exports and imports, price dynamics, as well as qualitative information on trends in the industry. The market intelligence provided in the report is divided into regional demand, as well as by end user, providing a strategic perspective on the evolution and outlook for the industry. Find out more about the report here.