Analysis

In February, India's West Coast average CFR prices for high and mid-sulfur petcoke registered a slight uptick compared to the previous month.

According to CW Research's India Petcoke CFR Price Assessment, in February, prices for high-sulfur imported petcoke for the India CFR West Coast stood above $100 per ton, a modest increase compared to the previous month. Mid-sulfur imported petcoke prices also increased marginally, rising above the $113.50 per ton observed in January.

Petcoke prices in the region are expected to remain stable in the upcoming months of 2018, on the back of a strong shipping industry coupled with high coal prices. Nevertheless, India has witnessed a decline in petcoke demand, as the commodity was banned in some states, and consumers remain cautious about further developments.

As noted by Filipe Gouveia, analyst with CW Research: ÔÇ£2018 is showing signs of being a strong year for dry bulk shipping. The Baltic Dry Index remained above the 1000 mark for the first quarter of the year, usually the slowest one due to seasonality in the industry. That means the worst has already passed, with the rest of the year expected to register high freight rates, thus bringing petcoke CFR prices up.ÔÇØ

When it comes to Reliance's gasification project, the outlook remains clouded with uncertainty. The company announced in its third quarter results that the project is expected to be commissioned in the first quarter of the year, and its effects remain largely unpredictable. The most likely strategy for the company is to stock up on the byproduct previous to the project starting date, reducing the amount of petcoke available domestically, thus translating into higher prices.

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