Global cement demand revised downwards in 2022

 

• Cement consumption is projected to decrease more than 3 percent in 2022
• China is likely to see the largest decline in demand
• Central and Eastern European on track for two years of decline in demand

Greenwich (CT), USA, December 6, 2022 – Global cement consumption is projected to decrease more than 3 percent year-on-year in 2022, following an economic slowdown in several major cement markets on the back of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the broadening of inflation pressure, according to CW Research's 2H2022 update of the Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR).

CW Research has revised its 2H2022 forecast downwards as the global economy is experiencing a multitude of challenges including the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to the IMF’s October update, global economic output is expected to grow by 3.2 percent in 2022, compared to the significantly higher growth rate of 6.0 percent achieved in 2021

"The combination of stubbornly high inflation, rising energy prices, supply-chain issues in addition to a fast-evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape are expected to negatively impact cement industry demand prospects over the forecast period", states Wanderson Teixeira, Business Analyst at CW Group.

Asia ex-China to lead regional growth in cement consumption

Asia ex-China is the region with the highest projected growth in cement consumption in 2022, at around 5 percent, followed by the Middle East at close to 3 percent

China is likely to see the biggest decline in demand, at over 8 percent. Chinese capacity is expected to decline as the government intensifies its capacity rationalization efforts. Moreover, the resurgence of Covid-19 cases has led to new lockdowns, which coupled with high prices of building materials, and the tight property market have negatively impacted Chinese cement prospects for the year

Central and Eastern European region to see recovery in demand by 2024

Central and Eastern Europe is on track for two consecutive years of decline in cement demand, in 2022 and 2023, at around 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively, after expanding by more than 1 percent in 2021. Demand in Russia is expected to fall by around 6 percent since the building industry is facing turmoil as a result of sanctions implemented by Western countries in reaction to the conflict in Ukraine

Meanwhile, Western Europe is expected to see a slower overall cement demand growth of 2 percent year-on-year in 2022 compared to the 5.0 percent growth in 2021 resulting from the regional economic slowdown caused by the conflict.

Argentina to see the largest growth in demand in 2022

Out of the 56 countries analyzed in the VFR 2H2022 update, Argentina is expected to grow at the fastest pace in 2022, followed by Bolivia, India, and the Philippines.

In Argentina, cement demand is expected to witness robust growth in 2022, increasing more than 8 percent year-on-year. Per capita consumption is also expected to rise by 2027 at a CAGR of almost 3 percent.

The CW Group’s Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) is a twice-yearly update on projections for cement volumes on a national, regional and global level. The forecast provides global and regional outlooks, as well as detailed perspectives on 57 of the world’s most important countries’ cement consumption, production, net trade and cement production capacity. The five-year outlook presented in this benchmark study enables industry professionals to shape their perspective on markets and business priorities.

Find out more about the report here.