High inflation to boost cement ex-works prices in 4Q2022

• Eastern Europe´s ex-works prices are expected to rise quarter-on-quarter, driven by Russian prices
• Egyptian ex-works prices to see the largest increase in the Mediterranean Basin
• South Africa´s ex-works prices to soar in the fourth quarter

Greenwich (CT), USA, October 11, 2022 – Cement ex-works prices are forecast to range from a decrease of around 1 percent in Costa Rica to an increase of more than 20 percent in Russia, quarter-on-quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the 3Q2022 update of the CW Research's Global Cement Trade Price Report (GCTPR).

"Ex-works prices in 4Q2022 are expected to increase with Russia leading both regional and global increases, on the back of the economic downturn caused by Western sanctions, due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict", observed Wanderson Texeira, Business Analyst at CW Group.

Ex-works prices to increase in Europe amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict

In Eastern Europe and CIS, ex-works prices in 4Q2022 are projected to rise well above 20 percent in Russia, followed by Poland and Kazakhstan, with projected increases of more than 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively. The construction sector continued to report increasing costs in the region, due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In Western Europe, for the same period, ex-works prices are expected to rise over 2 percent in Germany, as the country continues to face challenges in terms of production costs with rising energy prices. Additionally, in the United Kingdom, ex-works prices are expected to rise 1 percent, quarter-on-quarter, while in France an increase of 2 percent is forecast in the period.

Egypt leads regional ex-works prices increase

In the Mediterranean Basin, Egypt is projected to witness the largest increase in ex-works prices at close to 4 percent, followed by Spain with an increase of over 2 percent.

South Africa´s ex-works prices are expected to see an increase of almost 10 percent quarter-on-quarter in 4Q2022, as the annual inflation rate remains above market expectations. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s ex-works prices are forecast to rise around 8.0 percent in the same period.

Costa Rica on track to quarterly decrease

In Costa Rica, ex-works prices are expected to decrease by almost one percent in 4Q2022, whereas the US market is expected to see an ex-works price increase by less than 1 percent.

In Mexico, cement ex-works prices are expected to witness an increase of nearly 2 percent in the fourth quarter of the year, with a similar margin projected for the Caribbean market.

China to see a significant increase in ex-works cement prices in 4Q2022

In the fourth quarter of 2022, CW Research expects China’s ex-works cement price to increase by 5.0 percent compared to the third quarter, with industrial activity set to resume after a week-long break in early October and expected to be complemented by major project announcements during the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

The ex-works price in the Philippines is projected to increase more than 1 percent, while South Korea is expected to report an increase of nearly 2 percent quarter-on-quarter. Indonesia is projected to see a rise of more than 1 percent in the period.

The Global Cement Trade Price Report is CW Research's benchmark price assessment for monthly gray cement, white cement, clinker and granulated blast furnace slag prices and volumes. The 150+ page report, published on a quarterly basis, serves as the industry go-to source for monthly price data for over 70 individual markets worldwide, including multiple cornerstone data series: import, export, ex-works and market prices.

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